The defining questions of our time might be, how is America going to reduce inequality and reform its dysfunctional political institutions?
At the national level, with the 2020 presidential election approaching, the choice appears to be between a coalition of voters from large urban areas, and another made up of voters from rural areas. No matter who wins, the overwhelming likelihood is that a septuagenarian president will lead the country into the next decade, with all that implies.
But the greatest short-term progress on inequality might not be made at the national level, in big cities or in rural America, but in midsize cities. During the past couple of years, these cities have started evolving under the leadership of young, dynamic, pragmatic mayors, many of whom are black.
The historic election of Steven Reed in Montgomery, Ala., is the latest example: Not only is he black, but he was one of the first judges in the state to issue marriage licenses to gay couples. These mayors, taking advantage of the strong labor market and with the ability to be nimbler politically, can transform their cities, making progress on inequality and racial division even as dysfunction reigns elsewhere.
It’s easy to come up with reasons why governance at the national level will be difficult – at least the next few years. Bipartisan legislation rarely happens anymore. It’s simply unlikely that we’re going to see sweeping legislative change at the federal level in the near future.
Big cities and rural areas have a different set of problems – one is too hot and the other is too cold. Big cities are potent engines of economic growth, but they’re expensive, congested and have perpetual housing shortages. Powerful institutions, the wealthy and special interests stymie reformers at every turn. Rural areas, on the other hand, have aging and shrinking populations, and often lack the educational and health care institutions, employers and the educated workforce needed to draw new talent and businesses.
Midsize cities exist somewhere in the middle of this spectrum. Although they have their share of challenges, they also have opportunities too, particularly now. For starters, the willingness to elect young mayors shows an openness to new ideas and fresh perspectives.
America’s most famous young mayor of a midsize city is Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., age 37. In the past couple of years, he’s been joined by a host of others. Randall Woodfin in Birmingham, Ala., is 38. Frank Scott Jr. in Little Rock, Ark., is 35. Michael Tubbs in Stockton, Calif., is 29. The aforementioned Reed in Montgomery is 45.
The tight labor market, which is pricing more and more people out of big cities, is paying dividends in midsize cities with large nonwhite populations. The unemployment rate in the Little Rock metro area hit 3.1% in August, a record low. Montgomery and Birmingham also hit record lows of 3% and 2.8%, respectively.
This doesn’t mean that everyone or even the average worker in these cities is thriving. But it does mean that local government efforts to improve the fortunes of residents in these communities have a tailwind for the first time in a while.
For those discouraged by the dysfunctional state of politics, aging leadership and inequality in America, pay attention to midsize cities. Even if the federal government remains gridlocked, young black mayors leading cities with large minority populations during a time of low unemployment are a source of optimism and may present the greatest concentrated opportunity to reduce inequality right now.
Conor Sen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist.
