U.S. manufacturing
activity expanded for the first time in four months in December,
and consumer confidence rose to the highest in three months,
reports will probably show this week.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to
50.1 from November’s 49.2, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News
expect the report to show Thursday. August was the last month the
index came in above 50, signaling expansion. The Conference
Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 86 this month from 84.1
in November, a separate report will probably show Tuesday.
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“The economy will be far healthier in 2003 than it was in
2002,” said James F. Smith, director of the Kenan Institute’s
Center for Business Forecasting at the University of North
Carolina. The “numbers should get us off to a good start.”
Economists and monetary policy officials expect growth to
pick up in 2003 after slowing to a crawl at the end of this year.
In the first quarter, the economy is forecast to expand at a 2.5
percent annual rate, up from 1.5 percent in the previous three
months, based on the median estimate of 71 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg News this month.
U.S. gross domestic product will expand 2.6 percent next
year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
predicts, higher than the 2.2 percent growth of all its 30
members. Europe will expand 1.8 percent and Japan 0.8 percent.
Bloomberg News
