At a large private university in Northern California, a business professor uses an avatar to lecture on a virtual stage.
Meanwhile, at a Southern university, graduate students in an artificial intelligence course discover that one of their nine teaching assistants is a virtual avatar, Jill Watson, also known as Watson, IBM’s question-answering computer system. Of the 10,000 messages posted to an online message board in one semester, Jill participated in student conversations and responded to all inquiries with 97% accuracy.
At a private college on the East Coast, students interact with an AI chat agent in a virtual restaurant set in China to learn the Mandarin language.
These examples provide a glimpse into the future of teaching and learning in college. It is a future that will involve a drastically reduced role for full-time tenured or tenure-track faculty who teach face to face.
I forecast this future scenario and other trends in my 2021 book “Human Specialization in Design and Technology: The Current Wave for Learning, Culture, Industry and Beyond.” As a researcher who specializes in educational technology, I see three trends that will further shrink the role of traditional college professors.
The rise of artificial intelligence. According to a 2021 Educause Quick Poll report on AI, many institutions of higher education find themselves more focused on the present limited use of AI – for tasks such as detecting plagiarism or proctoring – and not so much the future of AI.
AI’s use in higher education has largely been concerned with digital assistants and chat agents. These technologies focus on the teaching and learning of students.
In my view, universities should broaden their use of AI and conduct experiments to improve upon its usefulness to individual learners.
However, most universities are slow to innovate.
According to a 2021 poll, some of the challenges to acquiring AI included lack of technical expertise, financial concerns, insufficient leadership and biased algorithms.
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and Massachusetts Institute of Technology are leading the way with new uses of AI. MIT has devoted millions of dollars to faculty research in AI.
Professors from the baby-boom generation are retiring, and I expect some of their jobs will not be filled. In many cases, these coveted positions will be replaced by part-time and temporary faculty. I believe the rising use of AI will contribute to this trend.
Erosion of academic tenure. Tenure is a status that grants professors protections against being outright fired without due cause or extraordinary circumstances. However, the pandemic became a means to dismiss, suspend or terminate tenured faculty to alleviate financial pressures placed on universities by the pandemic.
News reports continue to show a steady decline in the number of tenured faculty positions. According to an American Association of University Professors report, the proportion of part-time and full-time nontenure-track faculty grew from 55% in 1975 to 70% in 2015. Conversely, the proportion of full-time tenured and tenure-track faculty fell from 45% to 30% in that period.
The flipped classroom. The flipped classroom provides students with opportunities to view, listen and learn at their own pace through video instruction outside the classroom.
In class, students build on a professor’s prerecorded lecture and work on activities to assist discussions and expand knowledge. This approach maximizes instructional time for the professor and students because the lecture comes before the course’s in-class session.
A human teaching assistant, avatar or chat agent conducts all in-class activities, tests and group work. Professors, in this example, serve a limited role and ultimately will be needed less.
These trends illustrate a profession that I see as being on the cusp of radical transformation.
Patricia Young is professor of literacy, culture and instruction design and technology at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. Distributed by The Associated Press.
