CLICK HERE. / " title="THE CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX, authored by URI economist Leonard Lardaro, increased to 50 in November from 42 in October.For a larger version of this image, CLICK HERE. /"/>SOUTH KINGSTOWN – “The good news, though, is that things really can’t be worse here than they have been,” said Leonard Lardaro, University of Rhode Island economist and author of the Current Conditions Index.
The index, using a dozen national and local economic indicators to track the state’s economic performance, increased to 50, a “neutral” value, in November from 42 in October. A value above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading of zero would mean no indicators improved compared with a year earlier. A value of 100 would mean all 12 improved.
In October and November, the index registered the same values as a year earlier.
“Rhode Island’s economic recovery remains slow and somewhat tenuous based on existing data,” said Lardaro, flagging possible upward CCI revisions after February labor market revisions. He noted that they could portray a “less depressing employment picture.”
“Maybe this recovery isn’t as tenuous as existing data seems to indicate,” he added.
Six of the 12 economic indicators improved in November, including: U.S consumer sentiment, retail sales, total manufacturing hours, manufacturing wage, benefit exhaustions – reflecting long-term unemployment – and the unemployment rate.
Retail sales, one of the “foundations” of Rhode Island’s recovery, increased 1.2 percent compared with a year ago, improving for nine of the past 10 months. U.S. consumer sentiment also rose 6.8 percent in November.
Contributing negatively to the index were: government employment (-0.2 percent), single-unit permits (-45.7 percent), employment services jobs (-12.5 percent), private service-producing employment (-0.5 percent), labor force (0.1 percent) and new claims – an indicator that measures layoffs – which rose 15.7 percent.
