PROVIDENCE – An index of Rhode Island’s leading economic indicators increased 0.6 percent in July over June to 127.7, its highest-ever reading after an increase of 0.4 percent in June over May, the fifth consecutive month of gains in the state’s economic indicator index produced by Providence Business News and e-forecasting.com.
The index uses nine statistics to forecast the direction of the state’s economy over the next three to six months. Positive numbers signal growth while negative numbers denote contraction.
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A reading of 100 on the Providence Business News/e-forecasting.com Leading Economic Indicator Index is equivalent to the state’s activity in 2000. In July 2013, the leading indicator index was 120.9.
Seven of the nine components made a positive contribution to Rhode Island’s economy in July, including unemployment claims, building permits, consumer expectations and stock prices. Two components – exports of manufactures and state employment barometer – made a negative contribution to the index. Interest rate spread made no significant contribution. The state employment barometer has registered a negative contribution since March.
In July, Rhode Island’s six-month growth rate – “a signal of turning points” – went up by 4.6 percent, after an increase of 4.2 percent in June. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.9 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state’s overall economic activity.
