NEW YORK (AP) — Kosmas Spiridellis, the top technology manager at the securities firm CIBC World Markets, is just the sort of well-informed American who gives Y2K planners insomnia. Spiridellis, the main fixer of millennium bugs for his company, still plans to withdraw a few thousand dollars in cash before New Year’s, just in case bank computers misread the year 2000 as 1900.
“We all have to be prudent,” he says.
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Many government and business leaders say such last-minute moves around the world could create even bigger problems than computer bugs themselves.
Forget about Y2K doomsayers and survivalists, who long ago squirreled away months’ worth of freeze-dried food, guns and ammunition. It is the eleventh-hour stockpiling by the rest of us that has experts concerned.
“Perceptions could become reality,” said Andy Kyte, an analyst at the consulting firm Gartner Group, based in Stamford, Conn.
Drug companies are bracing for a surge in orders for medicine. Some sellers of emergency equipment such as electrical generators already are sold out. Phone companies are worried that millions of people will pick up the phone at the same time to check for a dial tone, overloading the system. The government fears stockpiling may squeeze supplies of food and other necessities.
“I do not anticipate any shortage of food in this country as a result of a Y2K technical problem,” said Anne F. Thomson Reed, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “Having said that, there is a lot of concern that the public will make a decision to stock up a couple of days before.”
To be sure, the risk of actual Y2K disruptions in the United States and elsewhere has been significantly reduced by rigorous computer mending over the last two years. Many experts say any outages will be scattered and less severe than initially feared.
Nonetheless, human behavior is still vulnerable to doomsayers’ warnings and scare stories. A recent NBC movie depicted New Year’s as a Y2K nightmare of blackouts, nuclear meltdowns and panic in the streets.
Some 55 percent of Americans plan to withdraw two to six weeks’ worth of cash in preparation for 2000, while 65 percent say they may sell stock, according to a Gartner Group study conducted in September of 14,000 people from 40 occupations. In addition, 67 percent plan to store seven to 18 days’ worth of food.
A recent government survey indicates that a campaign by businesses and government to assuage people’s concerns may be paying off. The survey found a decline in the number of people likely to withdraw extra cash during the Year 2000 transition, down to 39 percent from 62 percent in March. But that is still a sizable portion of the U.S. population.
Government and industry groups have been advising people to put aside about three days’ worth of extra supplies and cash _ what you might store up anyway for New Year’s.
“We’re hoping to get across to our customers that taking out more money than you would for a holiday weekend is dangerous,” said Jim Lestelle, a spokesman for Hibernia National Bank, with branches in Louisiana and Texas.
The Federal Reserve has ordered an additional $50 billion put into circulation in the event people make a run on banks and ATMs late in the year. That means there will be $200 billion in government vaults, up from the $150 billion normally held in reserve.
Drug manufacturers say publicly that they are confident they will be able to meet any last-minute surges in demand. But to be sure, they are bolstering production and cramming warehouses with medicine.
One of the biggest risks is “citizens deciding they need to stockpile to make sure they have what they need,” said Joel Ackerman, executive director at RX2000 Solutions Institute, a health industry information clearinghouse. If that happens in large quantities, some shortages are pretty much guaranteed, he said.
Household items that could be in short supply include paper products, bottled water, canned vegetables, canned meat and batteries.
At Cummins/Onan Power Generating Systems in Boise, Idaho, there is a four-month wait for a generator big enough to produce electricity for a medium-sized home. “We’re done selling for Y2K,” said sales manager Greg Kittridge.
