SOUTH KINGSTOWN – Categorizing the state’s second-quarter performance as ending on a positive note, University of Rhode Island Economist Leonard Lardaro measured the June Current Conditions Index at 83 – “well into the expansion range” – he said in the Monday report.
“Clearly,” he added, “Rhode Island’s economy is performing at its best since the Great Recession.”
When Your Period Is Disrupting Your Life, It’s Time to Talk About It
For many women, heavy or irregular menstrual cycles are often brushed off as “normal”—something to…
Learn More
May’s CCI measure was 92, which was a 17-point increase from April and was tied for the highest level this year. A year ago June, the CCI measured 83 – it’s third consecutive month at the time at that figure.
Published monthly, the CCI measures 12 economic indicators that are representative of the economic climate of the state. A value above 50 implies economic expansion, while a value less than 50 indicates contraction.
Halfway through 2018, Lardaro has a positive outlook on the state, saying in his CCI report that “barring an escalating trade war, Rhode Island’s economic momentum should continue, at least into next year.”
One reason he is optimistic is the positive performance of what he calls the “left behind” indicators, the labor force participation and employment rates, both of which improved in June and throughout 2018. The labor force participation rate, that is the percentage of the resident population that is in the labor force, rose to 64.8 percent, its highest level since March 2016, although still below its peak of 68.6 percent in January 2007. The employment rate, the percent of the working-age population that is employed, hit 62 percent, the highest levetl since late 2008 but still below the peak of 65.4 percent, also reached in January 2007.
In June, 10 of the CCI’s 12 indicators saw improvement, whereas 11 had positive results in May. A more detailed outline of the June performance is listed below, with percentage changes based on year-over-year changes:
- The government employment indicator fell 0.5 percent in June, the first decline since July 2017.
- A 3.3 percent increase in U.S. consumer sentiment, its fifth consecutive improvement, was witnessed in June.
- Reflective of the slow level of new home construction, single-unit permits decreased 30.1 percent in June, the fifth decline in eight months for the indicator.
- An 8.8 percent increase in retail sales was witnessed in June.
- Employment services jobs, a leading labor market indicator that includes temporary employment, grew 3.1 percent in June.
- A 1.9 percent increase occurred in June in private service-producing employment.
- A proxy for manufacturing output, total manufacturing hours “rose strongly,” said Lardaro, at a 7 percent clip.
- A 2 percent increase in the manufacturing wage occurred in June.
- The 12th consecutive year-over-year increase was measured in the state’s labor force in the June CCI, with a 1.2 percent jump.
- Benefit exhaustions, a timely measure of longer-term unemployment, said Lardaro, “fell sharply” in June by 18.4 percent.
- New unemployment benefit claims declined 8.2 percent in June.
- A 0.1 percent drop in the unemployment rate was measured in June.
Repeating his optimism given the positive results reported in the June CCI, Lardaro concluded: “Although we are still not back from the Great Recession, 2018 performance seems to be moving us there much more rapidly than we have over the past few years.”
Emily Gowdey-Backus is a staff writer for PBN. You can follow her on Twitter @FlashGowdey or contact her via email, gowdey-backus@pbn.com.
