Raimondo: R.I.’s COVID-19 death toll could be between 2,100 and 4,000

Updated at 3:13 p.m. on April 16, 2020.

Cases of COVID-19 in the state reached 3,838 as of Wednesday. Above, the R.I. Department of Health's COVID-19 Response Data dashboard. / COURTESY R.I. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
Cases of COVID-19 in the state reached 3,838 as of Wednesday. Above, the R.I. Department of Health's COVID-19 Response Data dashboard. / COURTESY R.I. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH

PROVIDENCE – Gov. Gina M. Raimondo on Thursday revealed for the first time details of the model being followed by Rhode Island to gauge when the state will hit the peak for hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients.

The low-range for what Rhode Island is now anticipating would put the death toll around 2,100 through October, while the higher range could be up to about 4,000 deaths.

State health officials also reported 18 new deaths related to the new coronavirus, bringing the total to 105. A 309-case increase in new positive cases from the previous day increased the total to 3,838.

Current hospitalizations in the state total 245, an increase from 229 reported on Wednesday. Of those in the hospital, 61 are in the Intensive Care Unit and 43 are on ventilators. The state has seen 182 discharges of hospitalized COVID-19 cases to date.

- Advertisement -

The state has tested 28,064 individuals, resulting in 24,226 negative results.

Providence has the most positive tests in the state at 972 cases, followed by Pawtucket at 347 and Cranston at 220.

R.I. Department of Health Director Nicole Alexander-Scott revealed for the first time that the state is seeing a disproportionate share of COVID-19 infections among Latinos. About 45% of Rhode Islanders testing positive for the respiratory disease are Latino, she said.

The state is communicating with community-based organizations and is actively looking for ways to expand access to testing in these communities, she said. Alexander-Scott said she expected to reveal more on Friday about how the state is trying to protect another vulnerable population, the people living in nursing homes and other congregate care settings.

CURRENT PROJECTION MODELS estimate that Rhode Island may need between 2,250 hospital beds and 4,300 hospital beds at the peak of its COVID-19 cases. / COURTESY R.I. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH

The state’s COVID-19 model has a ‘best estimate” or blue line that tracks hospitalization data, and which predicts that the state will see its peak around May 3, with a need for 2,250 hospital beds. The ‘higher’ estimate, or the red line, hits the peak sooner, around April 27, and projects the state may need approximately 4,300 beds.

The model was developed by a 12-person committee working with Brown University, as well as Johns Hopkins University, according to Raimondo. She said the single most-important variable in the model, and between the best- and worst-case outcomes, is how effectively Rhode Islanders are socially distancing themselves from each other.

She cautioned that the data set of hospitalizations is small, because a limited number of days have passed since she ordered a stay-at-home order.

“The biggest difference between the blue line and the red line is the degree to which we obey the social distancing, stay-at-home order. So for those of you who wonder, does it really matter? It really matters. We’re talking double the deaths, double the number of hospital beds, determined by what we do, together, as a community, for the next couple of weeks.”

The state’s hospital systems are adding capacity within their existing structures, Raimondo said, and should be able to accommodate the lowest prediction of hospitalized patients within the established hospitals.

The state should have about 3,500 hospital beds available over the next several weeks, she noted. This includes additional capacity at temporary annexes being renovated for this purpose now, including at the R.I. Convention Center.

In a phone call with reporters following her briefing, Raimondo said the model indicates that as many as 2,120 Rhode Islanders could die through October, given the lower-end forecast, while as many as 4,015 people could die through the same period if the state tracks along the ‘red line’ or higher line of hospitalizations.

The forecasts in the model have fluctuated, she said, and a week ago, the data showed a much higher number of hospitalizations, which she identified as 7,000 people in the hospital.

“I think our actual experience two weeks from now is going to be even better than the blue line if you all keep doing the hard work of staying at home. Sounds easy. It is really hard.”

This story has been updated to include more details from the governor’s press conference.

No posts to display