U.S. economists group not ready to say recession over

January’s “meager” job
gains suggest that more time is needed before the recession that
started in March 2001 can be called over, according to the private
group of economists that monitors the ups and downs of the U.S.
economy.

“Because employment growth was meager, it remains our
conclusion that additional time is needed to be confident about
the interpretation of the movements of the economy last year and
this year,” the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National
Bureau of Economic Research said on its Web site. Most Wall Street
economists say the recession ended at the end of 2001.

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The economy added 143,000 jobs last month after losing a
total of 237,000 in November and December, the Labor Department
reported last week.

The economists group tracks figures on payrolls, industrial
production, sales adjusted for inflation, and incomes excluding
transfer payments to help determine when the recession ended. It
usually waits until these indicators breach their pre-recession
peaks before calling an end to a contraction. It puts out a
monthly update on its assessment of the economy.

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Incomes are now higher than before the recession and sales
reached a new peak in July. A rise in November, returned sales
“to a level close to the July peak” following declines from
August to October, the committee’s report said.

Production and employment remain below their pre-recession
highs. Payrolls posted a new post-recession low in December when
they dropped to 130.7 million. Some 132.5 million workers were on
the job when the recession started in March 2001.

Bloomberg News

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