U.S. economy preview: Retail sales seen rising for fourth month

U.S. retail sales may have risen for a
fourth straight month as tax cuts and merchandise discounts helped
propel consumer spending, the backbone of the recovery, economists
said in advance of a government report this week.

Purchases at the nation’s retailers may have increased 1.5
percent in August as Americans snapped up cars, computers and back-
to-school items, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg News
survey ahead of Friday’s Commerce Department report. Sales, which
rose 1.4 percent in July, haven’t jumped by more than 1 percent in
consecutive months in 3 1/2 years.

“Things are strengthening,” Terry Lundgren, chief executive
officer of Federated Department Stores Inc., said in a televised
interview with Bloomberg News. Spending will probably accelerate
“hopefully in the fourth quarter but certainly in 2004,” he
said.

Americans are more confident about the economy this month, a
report from the University of Michigan may show Friday. Such
optimism and more disposable cash after the tax reductions helped
boost sales at retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and led to
the strongest selling rate for new vehicles in 22 months.

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The university’s index of consumer sentiment may have
increased to 90.5 this month from August’s 89.3. Confidence
remains below the 96.9 reached in May 2002 because the economy is
still losing jobs almost two years after the recession ended in
November 2002, economists said.

Bloomberg News

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