U.S. retail sales
probably declined in February for a second month, restraining the
pace of economic growth, economists said in advance of a
government report set for release today.
A 0.5 percent drop to $305 billion for the month is likely
after a 0.9 percent decline in January, based on the median of 64
forecasts in a Bloomberg News economist survey. Not including
vehicles, sales probably fell 0.1 percent, the first drop in five
months.
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A snowstorm in mid-February kept some shoppers away from
malls and car dealerships. The government days earlier had raised
the nation’s terror-alert level, which also hurt merchants whose
customers have lost confidence because of rising unemployment,
falling stock prices, higher energy prices and the threat of war
in Iraq. Retail sales account for 30 percent of the U.S. economy.
“Households are slowing down the growth in their spending,”
said Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in
Chicago. “They are poorer, we now have the new element of higher
oil prices, and the unemployment rate is bound to go up, which of
course will have ripple effects on spending.”
Also today, the Labor Department is expected to report new
claims for unemployment benefits declined by 13,000 last week to
417,000 after rising a week earlier to 430,000, the highest level
this year, according to the median of forecasts. Another Labor
Department report will probably show import prices rose 1 percent
in February on higher oil prices after rising 1.5 percent during
January, according to the median of forecasts.
Bloomberg News
