When you ask Central Tools P resident Alec Dawson if his Cranston manufacturing company is feeling the " industry rebound" economists are talking about, he laughs.
The same is true for Steve Fielding, president of Fielding Manufacturing in Cranston, and Peter Evans, president of Evans Findings in East Providence.
In fact for these local manufacturers, the news headlines touting "turnaround" and "growth" in the industry might just as well be the chapters of a fairy tale.
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"March was the worst month that we have had in a long time," Dawson said. "We have been down for two years and every time I think that we are going to come out of it, we don’t."
Fielding agreed. "We started to see a recession in the fourth quarter of 2000, and we are absolutely not seeing any turnaround yet," he said.
Ironically, national studies have found that manufacturing nationally is improving.
In fact, the Institute for Supply and Management’s factory index, a monthly survey of more than 400 manufacturers, including clothing, printing, furniture, and plastics, rose above 50 for the second consecutive month in March. Any number above 50 signals growth, which according to ISM hasn’t happened since June and July of 2000.
"The March report certainly validates the turnaround for manufacturing," said Norbert J. Ore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey. "While the growth in production slowed, new orders rose to very lofty level, in fact, reaching a level last seen in October 1986. It’s encouraging that the rate of decline in employment is slowing and that a number of businesses indicate that they are starting to rehire."
Local manufacturers aren’t feeling encouraged.
"The people I have talked to are having a tough time," said John Grady, executive director of the Rhode Island Manufacturers Association, a local lobbying organization. "They are hearing about the rebound; they keep asking about the rebound; but there aren’t seeing the orders that go with it. We just aren’t seeing it."
According to Fielding, the only thing recent economic forecasts are doing is creating confusion.
"I think it’s the Wall Street economists that are saying we are out of it, not the manufacturers," he said. "It’s very frustrating to hear. Unfortunately, we had faith and belief that those economists were right last spring when they said we were going to come out of it. But I honestly don’t think it’s going to happen for another two to three quarters. I wonder if the reliability in all the economic forecasting is wishful thinking or if this is a bit of an anomaly."
Dawson agreed.
"The Wall Street Journal seems to think that we are out of it, but we haven’t seen it yet," Dawson said. "There is a lot of uncertainty with every manufacturer I talk to. We all hope it’s going to get better, but no one seems to know."
And while manufacturers are usually the first to feel the effects of a recession and the first to rebound, Fielding said it’s not the case this time.
"For some reason we are slower coming out of this one," he said. "We are seeing better quoting and some customers are releasing capital dollars for new projects – a usual indicator of a rebound. But I think because of Enron and all of the financial recasting of numbers, everyone is a little uncertain, and as a result are staying very tight."
According to Evans, state policy doesn’t help the situation.
"In general, manufacturing in Rhode Island hasn’t experienced growth in a decade," he said.
Another problem for local manufacturers is a lack of financing.
"Rhode Island is definitely not a competitive state to be a manufacturer in," Fielding said. "What I also see is capital drying up. The big banks are abandoning their manufacturing clients. I don’t need an umbrella on a sunny day, and unfortunately, that’s when the banks want to give them to us. The progressive manufacturers are the ones investing in technology and people and that takes capital."
